Seems the blogoland is officially in a tizzy over the next iPhone.  Per protocol, the Apple Store is closed for “restocking,” and a flurry of fuzzy and poached screen shots have appeared in the last week.

Quite honestly, as an iPhone owner, I can say that this thing makes other phones just look like toys.  Not that toys are a bad thing.  But as more phones live and work like iPhones, social life will have to be impacted in unexpected ways.

Apple store closed for restocking


A brief paper written by WIll Page (of MCPS-PRS Alliance, in the UK) and myself has been made publicly available.  The piece was meant to stir a larger discussion around alternative licensing structures rights societies might put to use, particularly in the context of new, music-related startups.  These startups usually (1) cannot afford the rates societies have set based upon the financials of more mature businesses, and (2) are trying to use music in novel ways, for which a collective license may not already exist.

The paper can be downloaded from the MCPS-PRS Alliance site for independent research


That’s the question that directs my research.  We have made a great many of assumptions, and produced a number of theories over the years regarding the relationship between technology, work and organizations.  Most of these assumptions and theories have run into a few bumps when information technologies are concerned.

So where are we headed, as our capacity to automate work increases?  Are we running out of things to do?  Or do increasingly capable, and (gasp) intelligent  technologies simply take our work and organizations in direction we never anticipated?


So, as journos pondered how horrible things were in the job market these days… seems to me something funky may finally be occurring

An article from the Associate Press tried to spin the fall in unemployment, amidst employers cutting jobs, as “hundreds of thousands of people — perhaps discouraged by their prospects — left the civilian labor force.”

But could it be that the older generation is starting to retire, and therefore officially pulling itself out of the civilian labor pool? As such, the US labor pool could begin contracting in total size (after controlling for population growth) at a rate faster than employer layoffs. Fewer workers to fill fewer jobs.


As someone who has been exposed to a fair amount of research in the management realm, I am often shocked/awed/dismayed by the use of psychological testing in the hiring process. These tests play a statistical game that really should only be played by those understanding the rules.

When I see these new products in the world of genetic data, like 23andME, I get a little concerned. We might as well accept at this point in time that someday, you will exchange these kind of data either before or after an employment agreement. Many people would consider the privacy factor too overwhelming to expect genetic information to be part of the employment process, but the facts of the reality suggest that private employers are not bound by the same rules for private data as many assume. We are often and quite legally monitored at work, depending upon the state in which we are employed, we can be fired for our political beliefs (even if those beliefs are expressed outside of the workplace).

Anyhoo. Arrington, over at TechCrunch, released some screen shots and thoughts on his test data courtesy 23andME. As the tests that underlie these kind of services grow in size and focus, the data will only get more “reliable.” Firms can and will hire on the basis of the odds expressed in these results.


A good test of a new pharmaceutical would rest upon whether or not the team who developed the drug would use it on themselves, or their children. Unfortunately, what’s good for the gander is not good for the goose, when it comes to being free.Long Tail Anderson (the editor in chief of WIRED) has been able to make use of Wired magazine to promote his upcoming book. Note: the particular WIRED magazine (in paper form) is only available for free to the first 10,000 people to sign away their right to a spam-free mailing address here (”You may at times receive e-mail offers or information from Wired or carefully selected third parties.”).Unfortunately, judging from the article in WIRED, and the article in The Economist, Mr. Anderson strings together a great many buzzwords, sufficient to distract anyone from paying attention to the strings being pulled behind the curtain.Right from the start, the whole things sounds a little wonky:(excerpt) “The new model is based not on cross-subsidies — the shifting of costs from one product to another — but on the fact that the cost of products themselves is falling fast. It’s as if the price of steel had dropped so close to zero that King Gillette could give away both razor and blade, and make his money on something else entirely.”(excerpt)Never mind that cross subsidies are later listed as one of the business models for free, described as “any product that entices you to pay for something else.” SO  the new business model is based upon cross-subsidies for those who keep their attention.Regardless. The real bummer here is the ease with which this whole article repackages the past as the future of business.  Nothing in particular is the future of business.  However, this future will always involve someone opening their wallet and paying for something.


One of the most frustrating challenges when working, researching or teaching around the subject of entrepreneurship is the “what” of entrepreneurship.  What the hell is it?  More important, how do those assumptions people hold about this thing that is entrepreneurship stack up to reality?

Scott Shane, at Case Western Reserve’s Weatherhead School of Management, has written a book, The Illusions of Entrepreneurship, that is (imho) an absolute must read.


I have this feeling that Davos is like Vegas.  And now Scoble posts a story about a conversation he has walking to a breakfast with Zuckerberg, both heading to meet Musharref.  There is something both interesting and alarming about this combination of people at a breakfast table.  Is Musharraf going to start a Facebook group?


BearStearns has posted an analyst opinion on “User Generated Content” and the entertainment industry. The report can be found here ( link ). I dug through and decided the analysis should come with some caveats, printed below.

Right off the bat. An important quote: “The risk, in our opinion, is that as digital revenues increase, core revenues for entertainment companies decelerate more rapidly than we currently expect.”

Which is exactly the scenario that kicked the music industry in the ass.

Onward.

> UGC
Not a truly userful understanding of the scale and scope of user generated participation in online media. In fact, to assert this kind of fabricated “growth” they assert is dangerous.

They suggest that UGC (User Generated Content) accounts for 13% of internet page views, up from 0-1% in 2004. 1300% percent growth over three years for a sector. Their conception of UGC is completely flawed however, and this representation of the internet will lead to all sorts of similar, bogus conclusions. I have to be honest. It seems pretty naive to assert that less than 1% of internet page views, only three years ago, were the consequent of user generated media. What we have instead is simply a measure of the growth of the five sites/networks in their index. Online, UGC always has been big, always will be big.

UGC has been the heart of the WWW since the beginning. The big brands after this beginning were Tripod, GeoCities, and a host of others.. the “Homepage” phenomenon. Combined with every site of every other netizen that contains text, audio, video, etc. Similar pages have and will continue to comprise a larger proportion of views than estimated in this report. Simply put, do a web search. More than 13% of the results come from sources other than the search engine itself, or a major media company partner.

> Paradox of Choice
This cry for filters, editors, recommendation agents and such is old. It is neither new nor informative. You basically have to live under a rock to conclude anything else.

The paradox in this industry is that the value of the editor and the filter has not arrived consistently, and has often been collected by the aggregator alone, or not collected at all. Acquisitions in this area ebb and flow. From Firefly and others, to the fizzles in 2001 (you know who you are), to the big hits like Last.fm.

The “wealth of networks” is being earned by only a small section of the network. Even though the “wisdom of crowds” is being produced by an increasingly large crowd. Which Last.FM users got stock? This is where media companies, who usually played the editors as well, get screwed.

> Content and kingship
whatever. Since the beginning of media time media companies have developed content while owning “infrastructure.” From studios with theatres to labels with radio stations. The business has always been choppy. The challenge is when top-line industry revenue falls. Integration is simply a question of how you define the industry.

> Response to change
Three platitudes exist in this section, leading to doing nothing specific: (1) build organically (2) acquire (3) partner. The only other choice i can think of could be (4) do nothing, which the authors clearly just chose to leave out. The business book section of your local bookstore is fully stocked on platitudes. I know HBR has at least four leading off the july/august edition.

However, the warning against building organically seems all so reasonable, yet so painful for media companies to accept.

>Offsetting initiatives
Total advertising dollars have slowly climbed over the last five years. The percentages in the report play with you head. Core + Online = Total. Total is nothing other than Core + Online, and therefore, as long as total advertising dollars increase, newspapers (or whatever they will become) can always grow revenue.


The BS report included a section on the Paradox of Choice, and the necessity for editors and filters in a world of bazillion media files.  I felt that this call for action was a bit less creative than appropriate.  The call for editor/filter is a consistent call in the media industry.  And for some odd reason, firms and applications that provide these services have had a tough time.  I figure this is the more paradoxical challenge - a sustainable market for filters.
What I meant by the editor comment has two fronts.

> On the first front.
Media companies have historically also enjoyed playing the editor/filter, or having direct access to these influential nodes of culture.  So News Corp was both a producer of books, a publisher of papers, a network of stations, etc.  Even without the inbred connections of conglomeration, the network of peeps involved in this system were closely connected.  Kinda like the Wired Mafia (or the apparent hollywood-level Mafia of my alma mater, Northwestern)- the network of individuals who worked for Wired at the origins that now consistently re-appear, often working together or influencing the attention paid to each other’s work.

As the market for being the editor/filter has fragmented, media companies face a very realistic state of uncertainty.  What was somewhat of a Pipeline, is now more like a Pachinko game.  Furthermore, retailers have stepped up into the editor/filter position, either by way of their own products, or licensed systems. As such, the editors are bit less reliable in terms of their tendency to get with the program, as it were.

> On the second front.
Recommendation systems have a had a rough life.  Part of this challenge emerges since editors/filters face the same kind of competition for attention that media companies do.  Consumers have a wide set of options, and experience media reviews in somewhat of a wall of sound.  Knowing full well that “media” is most likely an experience good, we are faced with probably hundreds of options for filters.  On one site, AggregateKnowledge is doing the work.  On another, Amazons littlee collaborative elves are tossing out useless suggestions.

The real “wisdom” in this system most likely resides in our networks of relationships.  We tend to hang out with people who have similar interests, or (oddly) usefully opposing or idiosyncratic interests.  Even if we do not always share interests, trust has been developed at a level no media company could probably attain.

You will never organize this network like labor, however.  Instead, it becomes embedded within some other service and the aggregator of people and their opinions captures the value of the crowd and (otherwise) crowded wisdom.  For the rest of us, its a sort of social exchange in which we happily participate.




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